At COP29, urgent calls for climate action echoed, with Sultan Al-Jaber celebrating renewable energy records but warning that ambition must now meet action. U.S. resilience on climate goals, backed by the Inflation Reduction Act, faces “new headwinds,” as John Podesta acknowledged, foreshadowing potential challenges under Trump’s incoming administration. Article 6.4’s new carbon market could cut NDC costs by $250 billion yearly, but will it be enough if countries like Brazil, setting minimal targets, aren’t fully on board? With leaders divided and time running out, can the world stay committed to a 1.5°C future amidst shifting political landscapes?
Opening Remarks
- COP28 President Sultan Al-Jaber shared achievements from the past year, including a record increase in renewable energy in 2024 and the addition of 55 companies to an oil and gas decarbonisation charter.
- COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev expressed urgency, warning against climate inaction with a “road to ruin” warning, calling for intensified global efforts.
- UN Climate Chief, Simon Stiell, gave a heartfelt account involving his neighbour Florence, a victim of hurricane devastation, underscoring the personal impact of climate change.
“I urge you all to prove once again that we can unite, act and deliver”
– Sultan Al Jaberd
US Committed to Climate Goals
- Podesta affirmed the Inflation Reduction Act’s resilience in reducing U.S. emissions, even under the new administration.
- He noted “new headwinds” may slow but won’t halt the U.S. energy transition.
- Podesta called on China to adopt a 1.5C-aligned climate plan to lead in global climate efforts.
- He supported expanding the climate finance donor base to include wealthy developing nations.
“It is precisely because the IRA has staying power that I’m confident that the United States will continue to reduce emissions benefiting our own country and benefiting the world” – John Podesta
Late Drop-Outs
- High-Level Dropouts: Notable absences include Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed Bin Salman, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, joining previous dropouts like the U.S.’s Joe Biden, Germany’s Olaf Scholz, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Canada’s Justin Trudeau, and India’s Narendra Modi.
- Deputies for Major Economies: China’s Xi Jinping, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and Brazil’s Lula da Silva (due to a head injury) will send deputies.
UN Approves Article 6.4
- Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement establishes a framework for a UN-backed carbon market that facilitates the trading of emission credits among countries
- The mechanism allows higher-emitting countries to buy credits from lower-emission nations.
- This initiative aims to boost international cooperation on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and support sustainable development.
“By matching buyers and sellers efficiently, such markets could reduce the cost of implementing NDCs by 250 billion dollars a year”
– Mukhtar Babayev, president of COP29
Brazil New 2035 Target
- Hosting COP30, Brazil aims for a 59-67% emissions cut from 2005 levels by 2035, with net zero by 2050, but full NDC details are pending.
- Shortfall for 1.5C: Climate Observatory says Brazil’s goal is “misaligned, ” falling short of the 92% cut they believe is Brazil’s fair share for 1.5C alignment.
- Brazil’s NDC follows the UAE’s recent plan, criticised for no oil and gas cuts, with Azerbaijan’s NDC expected at COP29 and others coming next year.
“Minimally sufficient”
– Andreas Sieber from climate campaign group 350.org
