🌎 COP30 – has no mention of ‘fossil fuels’ in the phase out plan
🌳 Efforts to end deforestation
Despite COP30’s focus on ‘Nature’, the Global Mutirão decision only briefly mentions forests. The formal roadmap to halt deforestation was dropped, leaving Brazil to lead a voluntary plan backed by around 90 countries that will develop over the next year before COP31. Brazil’s Tropical Forests Forever Facility secured just over $6 billion in pledges, short of the tens of billions they sought. Although the final text reinforces Indigenous land rights and a just transition, many Amazonian leaders felt sidelined, with their stronger proposals on participation and finance ultimately excluded.
💰 Finance
Countries agreed to triple adaptation finance to US$120bn a year by 2035, though this falls far short of the roughly US$360bn needed and delays the 2030 timeline sought by vulnerable states. The Mutirão deal also signals an ambition to mobilise US$1.3 trillion annually for developing countries, but provides little to no clarity on who pays or how progress will be measured. Key funds including Loss and Damage and the Green Climate Fund, remain underfunded. A Just Transition Mechanism was adopted to support fair, community-centred climate action, but without dedicated finance it remains largely aspirational. The EU faced criticism for limited ambition and internal division, while global conflicts and rising security costs were blamed for shrinking aid budgets and slowing movement on new climate finance.
🎯 2035 climate targets (NDCs 3.0)
COP30 was the point when countries were expected to submit their 2035 climate targets (NDCs 3.0), but many major emitters arrived with weak or missing plans, leaving the world still on track for around 2.5°C of warming. The Mutirão decision recognised this gap but sets no stronger collective goal, instead launching a voluntary Global Implementation Accelerator to support better NDCs ahead of COP31. The EU did submit a 2035-aligned update, signalling progress toward a fossil-free power sector, and Taiwan also announced a net-zero-aligned target, but these remained exceptions rather than the norm.
🔥 Framework for phasing out fossil fuels
No mention of “fossil fuels” in the final UN text. Despite COP28’s call to “transition away from fossil fuels,” the Global Mutirão agreement avoids mentioning them entirely, after Saudi Arabia, Russia and other petrostates removed all phase-out language, prompting some to call the deal “empty.” Around 80–90 countries supported a formal phase-out roadmap, but Brazil dropped it from the text; instead, it will lead a voluntary roadmap outside the UN process, with a first follow-up meeting in 2026. Inside the UN process, countries agreed only to keep discussing a transition, there are no timelines, milestones or limits on production. Side deals on methane cuts and the Belém 4X plan to boost sustainable fuels offer some progress but fall short of a global fossil-fuel framework. The final deal was delayed by clashes between the EU and oil-producing states, procedural disputes, and last-minute objections. Underscoring how divisive the fossil-fuel phase-out remains. COP30 only delivered small advances, with deforestation efforts reduced to a voluntary roadmap and forest finance falling short. Adaptation funding was increased but still far below what vulnerable nations need. Most of all, the final agreement avoided any mention of fossil fuels after resistance from major producers, resulting in a weaker outcome that relies on voluntary initiatives rather than a concrete global phase-out plan.
